Weekly Economic Update
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Dave is at the hardware store to buy something for his house. Yesterday, he bought 1 for $1. The week before he bought 10 for $2 and his friend bought 100 for $3. Today he bought 907 for $3. If the prices haven’t changed, how is this possible?
Last week’s riddle:
David put on a white shirt with three large holes in it and went to the grocery store. No one gave him a funny look; no one objected to it. What kind of shirt was David wearing?
Last week’s answer:
A white T-shirt.
January 20, 2014
INFLATION RISES IN DECEMBER
Labor Department reports showed the Consumer Price Index up 0.3% last month (with core CPI rising 0.1%) and the Producer Price Index advancing 0.4% (core PPI went north 0.3%). If these spikes foreshadow greater inflation for 2014, they do little to alter the big picture of 2013 – a year in which consumer prices increased only 1.5% and wholesale prices rose just 1.2%. Annualized consumer inflation is beneath the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target and hasn’t exceeded 2% for two years. The last two consecutive years in which consumer prices rose less than 2% were 1997-98.1,2
A MILD LIFT FOR RETAILERS
Economists polled by Briefing.com thought retail sales would be flat in December. They rose 0.2% instead (0.7% with auto buying factored out). The Census Bureau revised November’s 0.7% advance down to 0.4%.3
CONSUMER SENTIMENT MISSES EXPECTATIONS
The initial January consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan took a major dip, dropping to 80.4 from the final December figure of 82.5. The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com was for a much higher reading – 83.0.3
LESS GROUNDBREAKING AT YEAR’S END
This is hardly surprising given winter weather: the Census Bureau reported a 9.8% drop in housing starts for December, plus a 3.0% decline in building permits. For 2013, housing starts increased 18.3% and permits 17.5%.4
NASDAQ OUT OF THE RED YTD
Thanks to a 0.55% 5-day advance, the tech-heavy Nasdaq became the first of the big three to go positive so far for 2014. The Dow gained 0.13% last week; the S&P 500 retreated 0.20%. Friday, the indices settled as follows: DJIA, 16,458.56; NASDAQ, 4,197.58; S&P, 1,838.70.5
THIS WEEK: Monday is Martin Luther King, Jr. Day and U.S. stock and bond markets are closed; overseas, China’s government releases Q4 and 2013 GDP numbers. Tuesday brings earnings from Delta Airlines, Texas Instruments, Verizon, Halliburton, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, TD Ameritrade and The Travelers. More earnings reports arrive Wednesday from eBay, Logitech, Netflix and SanDisk, and the annual World Economic Forum begins in Switzerland. Thursday offers data on December existing home sales and initial jobless claims, Q4 results from Altera and Alaska Airlines and the Conference Board’s December leading indicators index. Friday, nothing major is scheduled.
Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 1/17/146,7,8,9
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1 - forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/01/16/subdued-inflation-offers-little-help-to-gold/ [1/16/14]
2 - investing.com/news/economic-indicators/u.s.-ppi-rises-0.4-in-december,-core-ppi-up-0.3-260436 [1/15/14]
3 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2014/01/13-17 [1/17/14]
4 - esa.doc.gov/economic-indicators/economic-indicators-6 [1/17/14]
5 - thestreet.com/story/12244254/1/markets-hustle-stocks-mixed-amid-lackluster-earnings.html [1/17/14]
6 - usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F17%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F17%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F17%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F16%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F16%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F16%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F16%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F16%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F16%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/17/14]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/17/14]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/17/14]
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