Weekly Economic Update
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November 18, 2013
YELLEN EMPHASIZES FURTHER EASING
While conceding that the Federal Reserve’s current stimulus effort “will not continue indefinitely,” Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen sounded decidedly dovish at her confirmation hearing in the Senate last week. “Supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy,” she noted, which global markets took as a signal that tapering was not in the immediate future. The S&P 500 hit a new record close after her comments Thursday; gold and silver futures and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index all rose 1.4% on the day.1
HEALTHCARE ENROLLMENT ISSUES LINGER
While demand was reasonably high at the new online health insurance exchanges in October (975,000+ people found that they were eligible for coverage), total enrollment for the month was just 106,000. As tweaks continued to be made to healthcare.gov, President Obama announced that insurers don’t yet have to cancel plans that fail to meet Affordable Care Act standards. Friday, the House passed a GOP bill that would let insurers offer such policies to new customers as well as existing ones in 2014; President Obama has indicated he will veto this bill.2,3
EARNINGS GROWTH SURPASSES ESTIMATES
As of Friday, 461 firms in the S&P 500 had reported earnings – and according to Bloomberg, 75% of them had beaten profit forecasts. Bloomberg projects S&P 500 earnings up 4.9% for Q3 and 5.8% for Q4.4
DOW...16,000? S&P...1,800? NASDAQ...4,000?
Soon, the major U.S. indices could top those psychologically important levels. Friday saw another record close for the S&P 500: 1,798.18. The Dow settled Friday at 15,961.70 (also a new record close), the NASDAQ at 3,985.97. Weekly performances were as follows: S&P, +1.56%; DJIA, +1.27%; NASDAQ, +1.70%.5
THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from Salesforce, Tyson Foods and Urban Outfitters and the November NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday offers earnings from Campbell Soup Co., TJX, Best Buy, Home Depot and Medtronic. Wednesday, NAR publishes October existing home sales numbers, and the federal government issues the October CPI, the October FOMC minutes and the report on October retail sales; ADT, Lowe’s, JCPenney, J.M. Smucker, Deere and Staples announce earnings. Thursday, October’s PPI and new initial claims figures complement earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Target, Gap, Gamestop, Ross, Intuit and Dollar Tree. Friday, PetSmart announces Q3 results.
Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 11/15/136,7,8,9
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This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
1 - bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/asian-futures-heed-u-s-rally-as-yelen-boosts-treasuries.html [11/13/13]
2 - washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/11/13/what-the-obamacare-enrollment-numbers-really-tell-us/ [11/13/13]
3 - usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/11/15/house-cancelled-plans-bill/3576071/ [11/15/13]
4 - sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/U-S-Stocks-Rise-on-Fed-Bets-Amid-Industrial-4985720.php [11/15/13]
5 - fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5f3ccc1a-1b74-482b-b7fe-37046d8e5fc4 [11/15/13]
6 - usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13]
8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/15/13]
9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/15/13]
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Weekly Economic Update